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Sign of the time, news summarized in this blog post.

As stated in this article,


Some people are just better than others at making money. This difference causes the logjam over time.

One solution is debt forgiveness for the former. Stagflation is basically that.

Stagflation indirectly taxes the people with money at home and abroad. Its slow pace fools the people with money into inaction. The victims of this policy are mainly middle class savers, not the super rich. The later are more likely to hide in income earning assets. Stagflation impoverishes middle class. The super rich gain even more political power. The society by then would be a few against all others. It is fertile ground for revolution.

The world today rewards those who borrow and spend at the low end and speculators and crony capitalists at the other. The hard working middle class who earn and save get the worst deal. These are highly educated people who keep their society together. When they have nothing to lose, expect nothing less than revolution.


economy distribution will affect the political stability, and political revolutions/conflicts will feedback to affect the economy. It is a reinforcing loop.

That is why I say it is the best interest of the elites to support Human Quality Improvement Plan. It will address the root of the problem and so that the symptoms will not recur again and again

Currently I am looking for like-minded people to refine and implement the plan together. Don’t hesitate to contact me if you are interested.

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One of the most valuable things, and very easy to forget, is relationship. Social cohesion of the global society is a key stock, on a par with physical capital stock and natural resource and sink capacity. Just like damage of nature will affect the economy, damage of society will also affect the economy. Changes in each of them will change the other two significantly. Unfortunately, the invisible property of social relation compared to the other two makes it easy to be forgotten (and thus vulnerable).

It is a bit like Morale in an organization. Hidden, but important to survival of the organization.

Social cohesion is strongly affected by distribution (relative wealth). Wider and wider rich-poor gap (rich gets richer) hurts social relation; decreasing the gap so that weaker people can survive strengthens social cohesion. The problem of current system is that it does not internalize 2 major externalities enough – nature/environment and society/politics. There is social capital but it is not yet defined and entered the mainstream.

The social cost will need to be paid by one day. Society with low social cohesion is very vulnerable to shock. Conflicts make it even weaker. Survivalist who is aware of the crisis but just prepare for himself or his family is likely failed to survive because lack of community support. Human is social animal, don’t underestimate the importance of society.

Of course, it needs not be the case of collapse if we value the cohesion of global society. In this age of globalization, we are actually very interconnected and inter-dependent. We now have the common future (命运共同体).

Currently global community is dominated by international and inter-MNC (multinational corporation) relationship. These are very fragile and better be diversified to many types of relationship, such as inter-regions, inter-cities, inter-NGO and even inter-individual among different nations. The creation of internet and social networking web services is actually opportunity for sustainability, if we know how to utilize them.

Note: When measuring social relation, consider quality besides quantity. Various metrics in social network analysis may be helpful.

Unfortunately, an understanding of the causes of violent conflict does not, in itself, provide a sufficient basis for implementing good policies and avoiding bad ones, though scholars sometimes believe this. Theory can help us understand the process by which violent conflict escalates. Promoting understanding is the role of the scholar. But effective political leadership requires a combination of understanding, toughness, vision, empathy, courage and the ability to communicate. Political leaders need the results of our theorizing. They need our understanding and our prayers as well.


from this inspiring paper. Its ten lessons are very valuable too.

Also, by courtesy of this paper, excerpt from The Electronic Oracle: Computer Models and Social Decisions‘s “Epilogue”:


We have said that computer modeling can add five important qualities to human understanding beyond what can be achieved by the mind alone.

1. Precision
2. Comprehensiveness
3. Logic
4. Explicitness
5. Flexibility

The great problems that threaten modern social systems – poverty and hunger, armaments and terrorism, environmental destruction and resource depletion – certainly would be helped if these five qualities became regular elements in human decision-making. But we have also said that these qualities cannot be realized unless modelers become compassionate, humble, open-minded, self-insightful, and committed. If those qualities would become regular elements in human decision-making the problems of the globe would certainly be solved.

Although I know the discontent among people is boiling throughout the global, the early eruption in Maldives is out of my expectation.

If it is true, the international politics as we know will not sustain very long.



Update: debt, subsidy reform, fuel price rises, political crisis.

One of the most serious and, in many cases now unpredictable, risks facing investors is “country risk” – where the political and economic stability of the host country is questionable and abrupt changes in the business environment could adversely affect profits or the value of the company’s assets.

Let’s never forget, in our rush for profit, that there is a real human cost involved.

These are not written by me, but a merciless capitalist.

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