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Common system dynamics insight – delay makes thing worse:

“We are seeing the central banks trying to play catch-up and facing such intense inflationary pressures, in some cases, because they ran a monetary policy, set interest rates … too low for too long, on purpose,” said Chamie.

“Now they have to pay the piper. And it is time to hike rates, probably more so than what they would have had to have done if they’d just started hiking rates sooner.”


from this article.

If you were tracking oil price in the last few years, you must notice that instability of Nigeria oil production is often being attributed to the increase of oil price on that day. Of course the performance of the so call “analysts” is very poor, probably because they need to provide an “reason” (probably because we human always look for explanation why something changes like that) everyday and they didn’t have time and resources to explore deeper for the real causes which may actually be far in space and time. Therefore they always relate the changes to some events that occured recently, without testing whether their causation is valid or not (may be coincidence only, or correlation which is not causation) and if it is really a cause, how strong is the causal link (it may not be chief cause)?

Anyway, at least they revealed the importance role of Nigeria in the world oil market when the oil production is becoming harder and harder to keep up with oil consumption nowadays. Then, why Nigeria is so unstable?

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/africa/jan-june07/nigeria_01-26.html
and http://rs.resalliance.org/2009/01/09/oil-pirates-of-nigeria/ may give some clues about this.

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